Art

Will your family be OK?

Do losses keep you awake at night?

Are your emotions affecting your investment decisions?

Is your asset mix right for you?

What does retirement mean to you?

How can you minimize your taxes?

Do you have a fear of being audited?

Why is asset allocation so critical?

Are your documents in order?

Are you fearful of making an expensive mistake on your taxes?

Which of your current responsibilities would you like to give up?

Do you know where your money goes?

Do you have a strategy?

Do you have to give up your pension?

Worried you’ll outlive your money?

Should you keep the house?

If you had more money what would you do?

What would you do if you had more free time?

When is the best time to sell an investment?

Going through a difficult transition in your life?

How much is enough?

Having trouble deciding when to buy or sell investments?

Are you ready for retirement?

What have you always wanted to do?

Have your investment goals changed over time?

When are you happiest?

Are you missing the big picture?

Are you invested for retirement?

Having trouble setting goals?

Unsure about your rate of return?

What keeps you up at night?

How do you get a fair settlement?

How would you define “risk?”

How much risk should you take?

Are you prepared for disaster?

Making the same investment mistakes over and over?

What do you value most in life?

Will your estate be devastated by taxes?

Tempted to make investments that aren’t part of your “plan?”

August 31, 2010

The Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting

According to a recent article in the New York Times…”Businesses in nearly every industry were caught off guard by the Great Recession. Few leaders in business  or government, for that matter  seem to have even considered the possibility that an economic downturn of this magnitude could happen. What was wrong with their thinking?”

Richard Thaler, the author of “The Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting,” has an explanation that I/we think is well worth reading. Thaler is a professor of economics and behavioral science at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Cicily Maton attended his “Managerial Decision Making” course, and shares his views on the significance on “Behavioral Finance” in financial decision making. 

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/business/economy/22view.html

Next item: A Course Load for the Game of Life